MENGAPA RAKYAT MENDUKUNG PELEMAHAN DEMOKRASI? ANALISIS PERSONALISTIK, POLARISASI AFEKTIF, DAN PERSEPSI TERHADAP RULE OF LAW DI INDONESIA

Abstrak

Democratic backsliding has increasingly occurred through electoral processes and has often received support or tolerance from citizens. This study examines the psychological and institutional factors that explain public support for democratic erosion in Indonesia by focusing on political personalism, affective polarization, and perceptions of the rule of law. A quantitative explanatory survey was conducted using a nationally representative sample of 1,587 Indonesian voters selected through multistage stratified random sampling. Data were analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to assess the direct and moderating effects among the proposed variables. The findings demonstrate that political personalism and affective polarization positively influence citizens' support for democratic backsliding, while positive perceptions of the rule of law significantly reduce such support. Among the three predictors, perceptions of the rule of law emerged as the strongest determinant. The analysis also reveals that education weakens the influence of political personalism, whereas regional differences indicate that affective polarization is more influential in Java and perceptions of the rule of law are more decisive outside Java. These findings suggest that democratic erosion is driven not only by elite strategies but also by demand-side dynamics rooted in citizens' political attitudes and institutional trust. Strengthening democratic literacy, reducing affective polarization, and restoring confidence in the rule of law are therefore essential for democratic consolidation in Indonesia.